Crypto Daybook Americas: BTC Price Retreats From $108K, But Bulls Aren’t Done

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Slowly, then suddenly. That sums up the adoption of bitcoin

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and the wider cryptocurrency market by institutions.

It started with Strategy, then called MicroStrategy, adopting BTC as a balance sheet asset in 2020. Now the head of the U.S. government agency overseeing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac wants the mortgage giants to consider homebuyers' cryptocurrency holdings in their criteria for buying mortgages from banks.

"After significant studying, and in keeping with President Trump’s vision to make the United States the crypto capital of the world, today I ordered the Great Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to prepare their businesses to count cryptocurrency as an asset for a mortgage. SO ORDERED," Bill Pulte, director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, said on X.

Getting entrenched in the housing market of the world's largest economy can only add to the ongoing bull momentum in BTC and other cryptocurrencies. And, in a move that could markedly improve big banks' ability to create credit, the Federal Reserve advanced a long-awaited plan to overhaul bank capital requirements. That's a positive development for risk assets.

It's no surprise that BTC, which is most sensitive to fiat liquidity conditions, has extended gains in the past 24 hours, topping $108,000 at one point. The broader market capitalization is fast approaching a volatility threshold, according to FxPro's analyst Alex Kuptsikevich.

"The crypto market cap increased by another 1% to $3.31 trillion, reaching the threshold of increased volatility. Just above that, in the $3.40–3.55 trillion range, is a turning point, which has activated sellers and prevented the market from consolidating higher," Kuptsikevich said in an email, noting a rise in the Fear and Greed Index to 74, just one point below the extreme greed zone.

In other news, spot BTC ETFs recorded a net inflow of $548 million, marking 12 consecutive days of positive flows.

Metaplanet purchased another 1,234 BTC, a day after announcing a $515 million raise to fund the treasury strategy. Meanwhile, Nasdaq-listed Bit Digital announced a strategic shift to become a pure-play ether

staking and treasury company.

The Hong Kong Government issued a policy statement on the development of digital assets, focusing on streamlining regulatory aspects, expanding the suite of tokenized products, advancing use cases and cross-sectoral collaboration.

In traditional markets, futures tied to the Nasdaq index rose to record highs, pointing to continued risk-on sentiment while the dollar index continued to lose ground. Stay alert!

What to Watch

Crypt June 30: CME Group will introduce spot-quoted futures, pending regulatory approval, allowing trading in bitcoin, ether and major U.S. equity indices with contracts holdable for up to five years.

Macro June 26, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Census Bureau releases May manufactured durable goods orders data. Durable Goods Orders MoM Est. 8.5% vs. Prev. -6.3% Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM Prev. -7.5% Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation MoM Est. 0% vs. Prev. 0.2% June 26, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases (final) Q1 GDP data. GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Est. -0.2% vs. Prev. 2.4% GDP Price Index QoQ Final Est. 3.7% vs. Prev. 2.3% GDP Sales QoQ Final Est. -2.9% vs. Prev. 3.3% June 26, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases unemployment insurance data for the week ended June 21. Initial Jobless Claims Est. 245K vs. Prev. 245K Continuing Jobless Claims Est. 1950K vs. Prev. 1945K June 26, 3 p.m.: The Bank of Mexico announces its interest rate decision. Overnight Interbank Target Rate Est. 8% Prev. 8.5% June 27, 9:15 a.m.: Fed Governor Lisa D. Cook will deliver a speech at a Fed Listens event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Livestream link. June 27, 8 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) releases May unemployment rate data. Unemployment Rate Est. 6.4% vs. Prev. 6.6% June 27, 8 a.m.: Mexico's National Institute of Statistics and Geography releases May unemployment rate data. Unemployment Rate Est. 2.5% vs. Prev. 2.5% June 27, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases May consumer income and expenditure data. Core PCE Price Index MoM Est. 0.1% vs. Prev. 0.1% Core PCE Price Index YoY Est. 2.6% vs. Prev. 2.5% PCE Price Index MoM Est. 0.1% vs. Prev. 0.1% PCE Price Index YoY Est. 2.3% vs. Prev. 2.1% Personal Income MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.8% Personal Spending MoM Est. 0.1% vs. Prev. 0.2% June 27, 10 a.m.: The University of Michigan releases (final) June U.S. consumer sentiment data. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Est. 60.5 vs. Prev. 52.2

Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data) None in the near future.

(Estimates based on FactSet data)

Token Events

Conferences

The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference (formerly known as State of Crypto) is a one-day boutique event held in Washington on Sept. 10 that allows general counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to meet with public officials responsible for crypto legislation and regulatory oversight. Space is limited. Use code CDB10 for 10% off your registration through July 17.

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

SEI is up 50% in a week, leading all top 100 tokens, as analysts call a “clean, multi-factor rally” with smart money at the wheel.

Wyoming named SEI as a settlement layer for its state-backed dollar pilot (WYST) , giving the chain rare institutional cred and lifting visibility.

Catalysts stacked up fast: airdrop v2 snapshot, 9% validator APY bump and zero meaningful token unlocks in the near term.

CEX inflows topped $3M, while perp open interest rose just 9% and funding stayed flat — a classic sign of organic, spot-led buying.

Sei’s TVL crossed $540M, with DEX volume hitting a record $60M on Wednesday, per DeFiLlama — indicating rising DeFi traction.

Analysts warn that funding in excess of 0.05% or open interest outpacing spot would signal leverage creep and possible overextension.

For now, momentum is clean, macro is supportive, and July could bring more upside if risk appetite holds.

Derivatives Positioning

BTC's slight pullback from Wednesday's high of over $108,250 is accompanied by an uptick in perpetual futures open interest on major exchanges.

It's possible some market participants are taking hedges against a price drop.

BCH, PEPE and XMR have seen the most increase in open interest in the past 24 hours.

On the CME, BTC futures open interest jumped to a four-week high of 159.85K BTC. Still, the basis remains flat below 10%, weakening the bullish positioning narrative.

On Deribit, risk reversals have normalized to show slight call bias in BTC options. ETH near-term tenors still show a slight put premium.

Flows have been mixed on OTC liquidity network Paradigm, featuring risk reversals and some demand for call options.

Market Movements

BTC is down 0.37% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $107,446.08 (24hrs: +0.17%)

ETH is up 1.29% at $2,473.17 (24hrs: +1.41%)

CoinDesk 20 is down 0.34% at 2,997.24 (24hrs: -0.03%)

Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 10 bps at 3.04%

BTC funding rate is at -0.0004% (-0.4303% annualized) on Binance

DXY is down 0.56% at 97.14

Gold futures are up 0.33% at $3,354.10

Silver futures are up 1.45% at $36.63

Nikkei 225 closed up 1.65% at 39,584.58

Hang Seng closed down 0.61% at 24,325.40

FTSE is up 0.14% at 8,731.26

Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.13% at 5,258.69

DJIA closed on Wednesday down 0.25% at 42,982.43

S&P 500 closed unchanged at 6,092.16

Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.31% at 19,973.55

S&P/TSX Composite closed down 0.57% at 26,566.32

S&P 40 Latin America closed down 0.74% at 2,611.91

U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 2 bps at 4.28%

E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.27% at 6,163.50

E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.41% at 22,552.75

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are up 0.20% at 43,392.00

Bitcoin Stats

BTC Dominance: 65.65% (-0.11%)

Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02297 (1.95%)

Hashrate (seven-day moving average) : 803 EH/s

Hashprice (spot) : $54.23

Total Fees: 4.81 BTC / $515,528

CME Futures Open Interest: 159,850 BTC

BTC priced in gold: 32.1 oz

BTC vs gold market cap: 9.1%

Technical Analysis

BCH/BTC pair. (TradingView)

The bullish case for the Binance-listed bitcoin-bitcoin cash pair looks strong as the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) appears on track to cross above the 200-day SMA.

That would confirm a golden cross, a long-term bullish indicator.

Crypto Equities

Effective June 30, the price for Galaxy will be for its Nasdaq listing denominated in U.S. dollars rather than the Canadian-dollar-denominated listing on the TSX.

Strategy (MSTR) : closed on Wednesday at $388.67 (+3.09%) , -0.38% at $387.20 in pre-market

Coinbase Global (COIN) : closed at $355.37 (+3.06%) , +0.44% at $356.95

Circle (CRCL) : closed at $198.62 (-10.79%) , -1.17% at $196.29

Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) : closed at C$26.61 (-1.7%)

MARA Holdings (MARA) : closed at $14.98 (+0.67%) , unchanged in pre-market

Riot Platforms (RIOT) : closed at $10 (-0.2%) , +0.1% at $10.01

Core Scientific (CORZ) : closed at $12.3 (+0.74%) , +0.33% at $12.34

CleanSpark (CLSK) : closed at $10.60 (+5.58%) , -0.19% at $10.58

CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI) : closed at $19.48 (+0.31%)

Semler Scientific (SMLR) : closed at $41.04 (-2.03%) , -0.15% at $40.98

Exodus Movement (EXOD) : closed at $31.16 (-8.78%) , unchanged in pre-market

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

Daily net flow: $547.7 million

Cumulative net flows: $48.12 billion

Total BTC holdings ~ 1.23 million

Spot ETH ETFs

Daily net flow: $60.4 million

Cumulative net flows: $4.14 billion

Total ETH holdings ~ 4.06 million

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

The amount of USDtb borrowed on Aave. (Sentora)

The chart shows the amount of USDtb borrowed on decentralized lending and borrowing giant Aave. USDtb is an Ethena ecosystem stablecoin backed by Blackrock's BUIDL.

The tally has risen sharply to record high, signaling a pick up in demand for yield-bearing stablecoins in DeFi.

While You Were Sleeping

In the Ether