Crypto Daybook Americas: BTC, ETH, XRP Face Bearish Seasonality June as ETF Flows Slow

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Bitcoin (BTC) and other major cryptocurrencies continue to offer little directional clarity to traders, with inflows into spot ETFs slowing during the seasonally bearish period.

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According to 10x Research, June tends to be a mixed-to-negative month for the largest tokens. Bitcoin has averaged a 1.9% return in June over the past 10 years, evenly split between five positive and five negative occurrences. Ethereum's ether (ETH) averaged an 11.7% decline, with only two out of the last seven Junes in the green. XRP has fared even worse, though SOL has been stronger.

The apathy is reflected in the U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs, which recorded net inflows in only two of the past five trading days. Inflows on Wednesday were just $87 million, a sharp decline from Tuesday's $387 million, SoSoValue data show. Ether ETFs recorded a net inflow of $57 million, the least since May 21.

"The weakening pace of institutional flows confirms a loss of momentum — and makes us more cautious on the short-term outlook," Valentin Fournier, lead research analyst at BRN, said in an email.

Other analysts, however, remain optimistic, citing the rapid pace of institutional adoption.

"Despite the seasonal summer lull, the structural backdrop remains intact," QCP Capital said. "With both BTC and ETH emission rates now trailing global money supply growth, a long-term positive price drift appears increasingly probable. Fresh treasury buyers are absorbing supply."

The firm also noted the relative strength in ether as the ETH-BTC ratio trades close to the recent range highs.

The crypto news flow over the past 24 hours has been positive. Circle, the issuer of the regulated USDC stablecoin, priced its initial public offering at $31 per share, above the expected range of $24 to $26. The company sold around 34 million shares in the offering for a valuation of $1.1 billion.

The California Assembly approved the AB-1052 bill, classifying long-inactive crypto assets as “unclaimed property” and allowing the state to hold them in custody.

Blockchain intelligence firm Arkham said that a whale address supposedly linked to Consensys purchased $320 million in ETH from Galaxy Digital and transferred it to a new address.

Economic developments, however, have been dismal. Three soft U.S. economic reports, including the Fed's Beige book, sent the Treasury yields tumbling, reviving hopes for the Fed rate cut. Stay alert!

What to Watch

Crypto June 5, 9:30 a.m.: Shares of Circle (CRCL), issuer of stablecoin USDC, begin trading on the NYSE. The IPO priced that stock at $31 apiece, valuing the company at $6.9 billion. June 6: Sia (SC) is set to activate Phase 1 of its V2 hard fork, the largest upgrade in the project’s history. Phase 2 will get activated on July 6. June 9, 1-5 p.m.: U.S. SEC Crypto Task Force roundtable on "DeFi and the American Spirit" June 10, 10 a.m.: U.S. House Final Services Committee hearing for Markup of Various Measures, including the crypto market structure bill, i.e. the Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act. June 11, 7 a.m.: Stratis (STRAX) activates mainnet hard fork at block 2,587,200 to enable the Masternode Staking protocol. June 16 (market open): 21Shares executes a 3-for-1 share split for ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB); ticker and NAV remain unchanged.

Macro June 5, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases unemployment insurance data for the week ended May 31. Initial Jobless Claims Est. 235K vs. Prev. 240K Continuing Jobless Claims Est. 1910K vs. Prev. 1919K June 5: German Chancellor Friedrich Merz meets President Donald Trump in the Oval Office to discuss tariffs, defense, Ukraine. June 6, 8 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) releases April producer price inflation data. PPI MoM Prev. -0.62% PPI YoY Prev. 8.37% June 6, 8:30 a.m.: Statistics Canada releases May employment data . Unemployment Rate Est. 7% vs. Prev. 6.9% Employment Change Est. -15K vs. Prev. 7.4K June 6, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases May employment data. Non Farm Payrolls Est. 130K vs. Prev. 177K Unemployment Rate Est. 4.2% vs. Prev. 4.2% Government Payrolls Prev. 10K Manufacturing Payrolls Est. -1K vs. Prev. -1K

Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data) None in the near future.

(Estimates based on FactSet data)

Token Events

Conferences

The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference (formerly known as State of Crypto) is a one-day boutique event held in Washington on Sept. 10 that allows general counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to meet with public officials responsible for crypto legislation and regulatory oversight.

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

DEGO nosedived roughly 60% to $1.26 on June 4–5 after the BNB Chain-based Dego protocol said it would buy World Liberty Financial’s stablecoin, USD1, as a treasury reserve and seed a DEGO/USD1 pool on BNB Chain.

Chain sleuths found 93% of USD1’s circulating supply parked in just three wallets.

Traders are concerned the pair’s depth, and therefore DEGO’s new price floor, could be yanked at any moment, sparking “exit-liquidity” accusations.

Dego Finance said in a Thursday tweet that “fundamentals, tokenomics, long-term vision" were unchanged and pinned the price collapse on “short-term market psychology."

The team claimed it is auditing on-chain flows and liaising with exchanges/market makers to dampen volatility.

Skeptics warned of “ghost liquidity” and urge the team to court more reputable stablecoins such as USDT, FDUSD and USDC before deploying treasury funds.

Dego will publish a post-mortem and treasury-transparency dashboard “within days,” host an AMA with core devs, and outline additional safeguards (e.g., time-locked treasury moves, multi-sig sign-offs) to rebuild confidence.

Derivatives Positioning

Growth in CME-listed BTC and ETH futures open interest has stagnated this month, leaving the annualized one-month basis between 5% and 10%.

The figures show that institutions have scaled back demand.

Binance's 1000SHIB perpetual futures and BCH perpetual futures show negative funding rates in a sign of bearish bias. Other major tokens, including BTC and ETH, continue to trade with mildly bullish or positive funding rates.

On Deribit, the BTC call bias has weakened across multiple time frames. Still, higher strike BTC calls continue to dominate the 24-hour volume rankings.

Institutional flows on OTC network Paradigm featured outright put buying in June and July expiries and calendar spreads.

Market Movements

BTC is up 0.25% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $104,909.52 (24hrs: -0.79%)

ETH is unchanged at $2,607.45 (24hrs: -1.02%)

CoinDesk 20 is unchanged at 3,086.55 (24hrs: +0.81%)

Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 2 bps at 3.05%

BTC funding rate is at 0.0041% (4.4435% annualized) on Binance

DXY is unchanged at 99.82

Gold futures are up 1.15% at $3,412.40/oz

Silver futures are up 3.61% at $35.76/oz

Nikkei 225 closed -0.51% at 37,554.49

Hang Seng closed +1.07% at 23,906.97

FTSE is up 0.19% at 8,817.89

Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.44% at 5,429.08

DJIA closed on Wednesday -0.22% at 42,427.74

S&P 500 closed unchanged at 5,970.81

Nasdaq Composite closed +0.32% at 19,460.49

S&P/TSX Composite Index closed -0.37% at 26,329.00

S&P 40 Latin America closed -0.71% at 2,560.51

U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is down 2 bps at 4.35%

E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.07% at 5,985.25

E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.08% at 21,784.5

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are up 0.12% at 42,550.00

Bitcoin Stats

BTC Dominance: 64.16 (0.00%)

Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02487 (-0.12%)

Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 900 EH/s

Hashprice (spot): $52.7

Total Fees: 4.7 BTC / $496,562

CME Futures Open Interest: 145,655 BTC

BTC priced in gold: 30.9 oz

BTC vs gold market cap: 8.76%

Technical Analysis

10-year Treasury note yield (TradingView)

The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note has dived out of an ascending trendline from early April lows.

The breakdown suggests more losses ahead, which could ease financial conditions, powering BTC higher.

Crypto Equities

Strategy (MSTR): closed on Wednesday at $378.10 (-2.41%), +0.28% at $379.15 in pre-market

Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $256 (-1.12%), +0.48% at $257.23

Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$27.49 (+4.76%)

MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $15.67 (+2.22%), -0.26% at $15.63

Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $9.5 (+5.2%), unchanged in pre-market

Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $12.56 (+6.44%), +0.64% at $12.64

CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.53 (+3.47%), -0.21% at $9.51

CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $19.19 (+7.09%)

Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $35.76 (+0.51%)

Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $26.93 (-9.78%), +7.43% at $28.93

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

Daily net flow: $87 million

Cumulative net flows: $44.55 billion

Total BTC holdings ~ 1.20 million

Spot ETH ETFs

Daily net flow: $57 million

Cumulative net flows: $3.30 billion

Total ETH holdings ~ 3.73 million

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

BTC leads gold and other traditional assets in terms of bullish expectations. (Bitwise)

Bitcoin is expected to create several times more wealth for holders than any other asset, including gold, over the next 10 years, according to Bitwise.

Prices are reflexive, meaning expectations of higher valuations can actually draw buyers, leading to a self-fulfilling cycle.

While You Were Sleeping

In the Ether